The United States has significantly moved away from its historical status as the world’s greatest nation, once the undisputed leader in economic prowess, innovation, and military strength.
While we may champion the idea of American exceptionalism, the truth reveals a starkly different picture. Our technological progress has stagnated amidst a divided society grappling with severely lacking educational and healthcare systems. This poses a critical threat to our future, underscored by the alarming reality that our military technology has not only fallen behind but lags significantly behind that of both China and Russia—an issue many are yet to fully recognize.
America’s Perpetual Decline
The decline of America in key technological domains, notably AI, the Cloud, the Internet of Things, and military technologies, is strikingly evident when we compare ourselves to China. Surveys consistently reveal that the U.S. lags behind China in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), essential for shaping a prosperous future for humanity. This situation sharply contrasts with the early 1970s, when America led the world in these fields. In 1971, following Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard, the U.S. was undisputedly the frontrunner in STEM, facing no significant rivals. Today, however, the narrative has shifted dramatically, as confirmed by various credible sources, including the esteemed British journal Nature, white papers from Australian researchers, and the Leiden University rankings from the Netherlands.
The Leiden rankings, leveraging Bibliometrics across over 1,500 universities, stand out as the most objective and effective tool for evaluating the impact and scope of a university’s research contributions. I examined the latest Leiden rankings in “math & computer science” and “physical sciences & engineering.” These fields collectively represent the core of STEM disciplines, which play a vital role in propelling advancements in applied sciences.
The findings were astonishing. While it wasn’t unexpected to see China leading the pack, the magnitude of its dominance was truly remarkable. Chinese institutions claimed the top 23 positions in math and computer science and held the top 22 places in physical sciences and engineering. In comparison, MIT led among U.S. universities, achieving an average score of 52.5 (with scores of 53 and 52).
When it comes to STEM degrees, China stands out by a significant margin compared to other nations. While some may attribute this to its vast population, it’s important to note that 41% of Chinese students graduate with STEM degrees, which starkly contrasts with just 20% in the U.S. Moreover, Russia closely follows with a noteworthy percentage of 37%. This data demonstrates the scale of China’s educational achievements and highlights a crucial area where the U.S. faces challenges.
U.S. Innovation In Dire Straights
Over the last five to 10 years, esteemed journals such as Nature, Science, and the American Economic Review have highlighted a concerning trend. Despite widespread belief in constant technological breakthroughs, the number of groundbreaking innovations has declined for over 50 years. This issue resonates deeply; I presented similar arguments in my 1999 book Defying the Market. In the book, I criticized the disproportionate focus on information technology in research, emphasizing that we should prioritize discovering the critical materials necessary for a sustainable economy. It’s crucial to note that true breakthroughs can take a decade or more to gain recognition—this explains why sometimes two or three decades pass before a research achievement is honored with a Nobel Prize. Consequently, the observed drop in revolutionary research may largely stem from the significant slowdown in American research efforts. Before 1970, it was difficult to identify major modern innovations that didn’t have at least some roots in the United States.
Recently, China has emerged as a formidable leader in STEM fields, extending its influence to Russia through collaborative projects and a readiness to provide support. While efforts have been made to contain China’s progress through sanctions and restrictions, the reality of its advancements cannot be ignored. Despite attempts to downplay these achievements, some notable successes have occasionally surfaced, breaking through the barriers of propaganda that seek to obscure the truth.
In 2021, China demonstrated its military capabilities by launching a hypersonic missile that successfully circled the globe, coming within a perilous margin of its intended target. General Mark Milley, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, labeled this event a “Sputnik Moment,” drawing a parallel to the 1950s when the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik—a small metallic satellite—shocked the United States into action. This pivotal event galvanized our nation, significantly investing in science education, NASA, and pioneering technologies. Ultimately, we emerged victorious in the space race, culminating in Neil Armstrong’s historic words in 1969: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Interestingly, America’s moon landing can be seen as a triumph and a defining moment that underscored our extraordinary technological advancements.
When Milley remarked on Sputnik, the authorities swiftly pressured him to retract his statement. The stark reality is that our financial limitations and a shortage of STEM expertise render any serious effort to catch up utterly futile. While the original Sputnik launch generated massive attention in the West, China’s hypersonic missile test went largely unnoticed. Even when the Financial Times covered the flight alongside Milley’s comments, discussions in lesser-known sections downplayed its significance, suggesting it was not a major concern.
Growing Prowess of Russia & China
Recent developments have presented undeniable evidence of significant military capabilities. A striking example emerged when Russia deployed a new medium-range ballistic missile known as the Oreshnik in Ukraine. While this missile is designed to carry a nuclear payload, its initial demonstration in wartime did not require even a conventional explosive like TNT. This was because each of the six warhead trajectories launched from a single firing delivered six submunitions, resulting in 36 advanced, heavy projectiles striking their targets. These projectiles traveled at speeds exceeding Mach 10, generating kinetic energy that far surpassed that of an equivalent weight of TNT.
Upon impact, the warheads produced temperatures equivalent to approximately 70% of the sun’s surface. The resulting shockwave was felt across several miles. One resident living quite a distance from the missile’s point of impact reported that it caused a wall of his house to collapse. Notably, Putin allowed the missile to remain on its launch pad for around 36 hours, effectively granting the West ample opportunity to confirm it lacked a nuclear payload. You might wonder why he afforded the West this window to prepare its missile defenses because the missile’s six trajectories can alter course mid-flight, rendering current missile defense systems ineffective. Moreover, this missile has the capability to reach targets throughout the entire European region, including the UK.
The Oreshnik missile, now in serial production under Putin, represents a pivotal shift in military capabilities. Armed with conventional explosives, it boasts destructive power comparable to that of a nuclear missile but without the detrimental fallout. Leading experts assert that just two Oreshnik missiles can obliterate an entire airbase, a task that would otherwise necessitate a staggering 200 conventional missiles. This highlights the alarming vulnerability of any territory within the Oreshnik’s range. Furthermore, this missile exemplifies the growing military superiority of China and Russia, showcasing how America is lagging in essential defense technologies.
Russia is developing a variety of advanced weaponry, including systems with ranges that can easily strike the U.S. mainland, and these capabilities are likely beyond U.S. defenses. While Russia is leading in the hypersonic military technology race, China’s unmatched expertise may significantly contribute to some of Russia’s most sophisticated weapons.
China, like Russia, possesses ICBMs that, like the Oreshnik, exceed Western capabilities with hypersonic speeds. Furthermore, these missiles are equipped with advanced radar technology to evade any threats en route to their designated targets. In essence, we are left vulnerable and defenseless against this emerging threat.
U.S. Military Has Been Usurped
Do we truly believe America’s ability to respond with a counterstrike ensures our security against a first strike?
It’s crucial to remember that China has invested heavily in developing advanced anti-ballistic missile systems. Despite any narratives we might promote, it’s important to recognize that China isn’t inherently aggressive. Though it has been involved in conflicts like Korea and Vietnam in the not-so-distant past, it has been centuries since China has actively initiated significant military action against other nations. Historically, major wars involving China have often been internal. Consequently, China allocates substantial resources to bolster its military defenses. Their anti-ballistic missile systems are designed to counter their most sophisticated offensive capabilities – including hypersonic missiles that travel at incredible speeds and possess extraordinary maneuverability. Evidence suggests that their systems are highly effective at meeting this challenge.
In Ukraine, our Patriot missiles have proven to be largely ineffective, serving more as targets for Russian forces than as a reliable defense. In contrast, Israel’s Iron Dome, operated by top-tier missile defense personnel and utilizing advanced systems like THAAD, has managed to intercept about 80% of incoming missile threats. While this is a commendable achievement, it falls short, considering the sophistication of the offensive capabilities of adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran. Iran, in particular, benefits from its powerful allies and invests heavily in cutting-edge technological research. It’s worth noting that the first female recipient of the Fields Medal—the highest honor in mathematics—was an Iranian educated within her country, underscoring the intellectual potential that can arise even in challenging environments.
The glaring truth is that the U.S. can no longer avoid confronting reality. This reality echoes Eisenhower’s assertion that America’s spiritual values are its most formidable assets in war and peace. The decision to eliminate gold’s role in our monetary framework has rendered Eisenhower’s insight tragically prophetic. While America can still play a vital role in shaping a new world order, our claims of rules-based exceptionalism have become a hollow farce, a mere shadow of what it once was. It is now abundantly clear that embracing cooperation with the global community is not just beneficial—it is crucial for our survival.
I’m not asserting that a lack of cooperation in our global economic system will inevitably lead to catastrophe. However, it could very well push the Doomsday clock closer to midnight. Catastrophe doesn’t only manifest through nuclear devastation; it might manifest in the form of compromised infrastructure that jeopardizes our everyday lives. This topic will be explored in detail in an upcoming blog. It’s worth noting that even the Wall Street Journal acknowledges that Chinese hackers have established a significant, year-long presence in the communication cables we rely on. Furthermore, just as I finalize this piece, a Bloomberg headline reveals that Chinese hackers have breached our Treasury Department.
Our vulnerabilities could lead to either gradual decline or rapid downfall. We have strayed far beyond where we can escape the consequences of decades of deterioration. However, collaborating with the global South/East could be the pivotal move needed to steer this struggling vessel back on course. In time, this partnership may even help us reclaim the exceptional prowess we once held.
I draw inspiration from a recent remark by Gina Raimondo, Biden’s Commerce Secretary. Historically, as a leader in efforts to challenge China’s technological ambitions, she has now acknowledged that sanctions and export restrictions serve merely as “speed bumps.” According to her, trying to contain China’s progress is ultimately futile; the real answer lies in out-innovating them, a notion first put forth by Milley years ago.
Final Thoughts…
Today’s global landscape is starkly different from the Cold War era sparked by Sputnik in the 1950s. Now, we confront a matter of global survival rather than mere dominance. In these challenging times, it is essential for major nations to embrace each other’s sovereignty and cultural differences, uniting in collaboration for the betterment of all humanity.
