In our swiftly evolving world, complacency is a risk investors cannot afford. Those who bury their heads in the sand are leaving themselves vulnerable to the inevitable winds of change.
However, there is a bright side: humanity has an incredible capacity for adaptability. I am optimistic that the United States will confront reality directly and pursue cooperation with the global community. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is pivotal, illustrating that our planet can only flourish when nations unite toward shared objectives despite their differences.
The current challenges we face result from decades of neglect within the U.S., which unfortunately has positioned us behind many parts of the world, including the rapidly advancing Global South. This loss of stature is a hard pill to swallow for many—including myself—who grew up believing in the ideal of the U.S. as a shining city on a hill.
I’ve touched on these themes before:
The Global South is increasingly uniting, showcasing a newfound cohesiveness that cannot be ignored. The exponential growth of the BRICS nations is a testament to this shift as these nations strive for more significant influence on the world stage. The BRICS’ ambitious pursuit of a digital currency threatens the dollar’s dominance, signaling a substantial transformation in global finance.
Moreover, the United States, long reliant on other countries for critical natural resources, faces mounting challenges. This dependence undermines its economic stability and highlights vulnerabilities in its strategic positions. Coupled with growing inequalities and lagging progress in U.S. technology, it’s clear that the nation must adapt or risk falling significantly behind in the global arena. The landscape is changing—will the U.S. respond effectively, or will it be left in the dust as a new world order takes shape?
I’ve outlined the investment implications, including the urgency of owning gold and silver and the focus on non-U.S. stocks. These macro-investment views will be reflected in my new investment publication, which will launch on StephenLeeb.com later this month.
My loyal subscribers to The Complete Investor have already been informed that my two-decade run with TCI has ended. For those unfamiliar with TCI, it was launched more than 21 years ago. Since then, my colleagues and I have striven to provide the most insightful, honest, no-holds-barred analysis and investment advice possible on every issue. Our outstanding portfolio results are a testament to our efforts.
Now, we are moving to a new stage. In a challenging time for print publications, TCI’s publisher has decided to cease publishing TCI in its current form as a stand-alone printed investment letter. But rest assured that I’m not abandoning my commitment to following our recommendations and protecting your finances. As you know, I believe the world is at a significant and risky inflection point. These are turbulent times, and investors have little margin for error.
In my new online investment letter, “Turbulent Times Investor,” I will continue to provide analysis and follow our key portfolio recommendations.
For details, please visit my website: StephenLeeb.com.
And to all the subscribers who have been following us for so long, I thank you for your attention and loyalty and look forward to continuing to serve you.
America’s Perilous Hegemony
A historical exploration into the path we’ve taken away from our origins serves as a reflection and illuminates the necessary steps to regain our direction. I aim to examine the stark contrast between spirituality and materialism in particular.
I contend that the root of America’s current challenges is our abandonment of the strong spiritual foundations that once defined us, leading to an obsession with material wealth. We must reconnect with our spiritual ancestry. This doesn’t imply loyalty to a specific deity or religion; instead, it emphasizes the belief that life represents more than the endless chase for financial gain and possessions. There’s profound merit in fostering community and striving together for collective well-being.
Throughout American history, a harmonious blend of spirituality and materialism has driven the technological and scientific advancements that positioned us as a global leader. In 1954, when the U.S. was peaking, President Eisenhower recognized the vital role spirituality played in our nation’s remarkable achievements. Addressing a Congress that unanimously voted to include the phrase “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance, Eisenhower remarked:
“In this way, we shall constantly strengthen those spiritual weapons, which will forever be our country’s most powerful resource, in peace or war.”
When spirituality yields to materialism, the consequences can be dire. This is primarily because materialism undermines the long-term vision for fostering scientific advancement. As the United States has increasingly adopted a materialistic mindset, our once-prestigious standing in science and technology has waned. Innovation has stagnated as success has become narrowly defined by financial gain. Results are evaluated in mere days, and companies and investors obsess over quarterly returns.
In stark contrast to Eisenhower, we see the figure of General Curtis LeMay, the pivotal architect of the modern Air Force, whose impactful quotes resonate strongly in our memory:
“There are no innocent civilians, so it doesn’t bother me so much to be killing innocent bystanders.”
One figure from that era who truly stands out is Robert McNamara. Initially serving directly under General LeMay, he later became the head of Ford, where he remarkably turned the struggling automaker around. Young and exceptionally talented, McNamara boldly chose to leave his lucrative position—earning a staggering $3 million—when the newly elected President John F. Kennedy called upon him to serve his country as Defense Secretary for a mere $25,000 a year. Notably, McNamara and Kennedy shared a vision that starkly contrasted with that of LeMay.
During the tense Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, McNamara and Kennedy worked tirelessly to prevent war with the Soviet Union. In stark contrast to LeMay, who advocated for a destructive military response, McNamara supported Kennedy’s restrained approach, ultimately preventing conflict. Their successful crisis resolution paved the way for a vital exchange of letters between Kennedy and Khrushchev, aimed at averting future crises and fostering dialogue. This experience inspired Kennedy to pursue peace with the Soviet Union. Remarkably, just months before his tragic assassination, Kennedy addressed the Irish Parliament, expressing his hopes for a more peaceful world:
“Hostility today is a fact but not a ruling law. The supreme reality of our time is our indivisibility as children of God and our common vulnerability on this planet.”
In my examination of history, the assassinations of President Kennedy and his brother, Robert Kennedy, five years later—while he was running for President—stand out as pivotal moments in our nation’s spiritual decline. Had the Kennedys survived, our trajectory could have been profoundly different and far more positive.
Shortly before his assassination in November 1963, President Kennedy made a courageous decision to begin withdrawing U.S. “advisors” from Vietnam. This move was met with fierce opposition from staunch cold warriors, including General LeMay and elements within the CIA. Their discontent may have played a crucial role in Kennedy’s tragic death. I believe there is compelling evidence that the CIA was involved in the assassinations of both JFK and RFK. The agency’s likely collusion in these events signals a troubling alliance between the CIA and the military-industrial complex, a relationship President Eisenhower warned us about in his final address. The unchecked power of the CIA stems from a 1949 law that granted it near-autonomous authority in the name of U.S. security.
However, whether the CIA actively participated in these assassinations is secondary to the real issue at hand. What genuinely matters is that both Kennedys were poised to extricate the U.S. from Vietnam. Had that occurred, our present reality would be strikingly different. There exists a direct correlation between the escalated U.S. involvement in Vietnam and our diminishing spirituality, as well as our subsequent decline into a frenzied and ultimately self-destructive pursuit of material wealth. The war, intertwined with the Great Society programs—often called “guns and butter”—led to significant trade deficits. In 1971, Nixon’s abandonment of the Bretton Woods gold standard marked a pivotal shift, causing gold to relinquish its status as the cornerstone of the Western monetary framework. This pivotal moment unleashed an era rife with rampant greed and materialism, a focus on short-term profits, and an erosion of our nation’s spiritual foundations.
In my book, ‘China’s Rise and the New Age of Gold,’ available on Amazon, I delve into the nuanced relationships connecting the abandonment of the gold standard to America’s decline. I will discuss some of these themes and further elaborate in future articles. A key insight is that even after the U.S. renounced its commitment to convert dollars into gold, it remained the world’s reserve currency—a non-guaranteed status. This dominance was solidified when, following the Arab countries’ second war against Israel and their oil embargo against the U.S., Nixon brokered a pivotal deal with the Saudis. They agreed to price their oil exclusively in dollars, and in exchange, the U.S. committed to safeguarding Saudi Arabia and its trade routes.
At that time, the U.S. possessed a military unmatched in human resources, hardware, and technology—capable of outclassing the combined military forces of all other Western nations. Compared to the Soviet Union, the world’s second-largest military then, the U.S. boasted over twice the military strength and global firepower index. This overwhelming capability allowed the U.S. to honor its end of the bargain with the Saudis without concern.
This agreement solidified the dollar’s status as the reserve currency, erasing any obligation for the U.S. to back the dollar with gold enabling unfettered spending. We indulged in excess, devoid of the necessity for foresight or the tough choices that govern long-term sustainability. At that moment, it seemed we held all the power and could remain at the pinnacle of global dominance indefinitely, yet we were deceiving ourselves. As noted earlier, focusing on material wealth contradicts the long-term vision essential for sustained scientific and technological advancement. Unbeknownst to us, we were ceding our competitive edge. This mindset continues to define our current landscape today
